Citation

Abdul Rahman, Nur Dayana and Thiruchelvam, Loshini and Zainal Abidin, Nur Balqishanis and Dass, Sarat Chandra and Gill, Balvinder Singh and Mat Jan, Nur Amalina and Asirvadam, Vijanth Sagayan (2026) Investigation Public Holiday is Factor Affecting Dengue Cases by Using Arima and Arimax Model in Selangor and Sarawak from 2015 to 2019. Malaysian Journal of Science, 45 (sp1). pp. 95-103. ISSN 1394-3065

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Abstract

This study investigated the relationship between dengue cases and human movement, as represented by public holidays in Malaysia for two states, Selangor and Sarawak, using a weekly dataset from 2015 to 2019. This study developed dengue prediction models by employing Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and ARIMA with public holiday as the exogenous variable (ARIMAX) time series models. The Box Jenkins approach for model development with Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) selection criteria are applied to select the optimum model by using the training dataset. This study, however, found the positive effect of human movement during public holidays is only apparent in three study areas; Klang and Sabak Bernam districts in Selangor state and Sibu division in Sarawak. The AIC and BIC values for Klang, Sabak Bernam, and Sibu were (-573.51, -556.89), (-162.93, -146.32), and (-446.64, -420.06), respectively. Despite this, the difference in the AIC and BIC values between ARIMA and ARIMAX models in other study areas is not large, and the study further found that the ARIMAX model of each study area did not fail to perform comparably well, with some study areas showing better accuracy scores when compared to their counterpart ARIMA model in the testing dataset. This concludes that public holidays, specifically the effect of human movement during that period, are significant factors for predicting dengue cases.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Box Jenkins, dengue, Malaysia, prediction models, ARIMAX
Subjects:	R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
Divisions:	Faculty of Computing and Informatics (FCI)
Depositing User:	Ms Suzilawati Abu Samah
Date Deposited:	29 Oct 2026 07:38
Last Modified:	29 Oct 2026 07:38
URII:	http://shdl.mmu.edu.my/id/eprint/17004

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